Wednesday, 7 August 2013

Stats show Chelsea will win the title and the newly-promoted clubs will go straight back down

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Chelsea will be champions, Manchester City will pip United to second and Arsenal will beat Tottenham to the Champions League.
This is how the new title race will unfold and - at the other end of the table - Cardiff, Hull and Crystal Palace will go straight back down.
These are the forecasts of Bloomberg Sport, the analytics company who have used seasons' worth of data and complex algorithms to predict the final standings of the new season.
Mourinho back in business: Mourinho won the Premier League twice during his first spell at ChelseaMourinho back in business: Mourinho won the Premier League twice during his first spell at Chelsea

Liverpool will finish above Everton to claim the bragging rights of Merseyside, although they will still be well off the mark to qualify for top European football.

Before we get carried away, let's remember that unpredictablilty is one of the things that makes the Premier League so exciting.

No one can account for a rogue beach ball or a scandalous injury-time penalty but Bloomberg have given it their best shot.

As well as old data, they have factored in the importance of new players and managers to construct their hypothetical end-of-season scenario.

City have been busy in the transfer market, signing Fernandinho, Stevan Jovetic, Alvaro Negredo and Jesus Navas, so they have been tipped to beat David Moyes' side in his first season at Old Trafford

The report looks at defensive and attacking econometrics such as tackles, interceptions, pass completion and shooting accuracy.
New faces: Man City have recruited heavily including £34million Fernandinho
New faces: Man City have recruited heavily including £34million Fernandinho
Straight back down: None of the newly-promoted clubs are forecast to stay upStraight back down: None of the newly-promoted clubs are forecast to stay up

The final standings are all based on the most likely outcomes, although there could still be some major changes before the season has even begun.

Gareth Bale has been the big talking point this summer, linked with a record-breaking move to Real Madrid, and Spurs have a 13 per cent better chance of finishing in the top four if they keep hold of the Welshman.

According the the study, the league winners must pick up at least 88.9 points and the strugglers need a minimum of 36.4 points to beat the drop.

'As fans around the world debate the 2013-2014 Premier League season from a purely subjective standpoint, we are adding our mathematically-derived predictions to the debate,' said Bill Squadron, President of Bloomberg Sports.

So if you're a true believer in statistics, then this could be your way of beating the bookie.
Who's finishing where? Bloomerg forecasts tip Chelsea to win the league
Who's finishing where? Bloomerg forecasts tip Chelsea to win the league
Pride of Merseyside: Liverpool are tipped to finish above Everton
Pride of Merseyside: Liverpool are tipped to finish above Everton

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